the camel’s back was finally broken
The pemicu for the demonstrations that brought the downfall of President Omar al-Bashir in April was the trebling of the price of bread last December. It came after a major devaluation of the Sudanese pound in an usaha to make the official rate for the pound turun to that of the black pasar. With the International Monetary Fund pushing for austerity and the rate of inflation hovering around 70%, the camel's back was finally broken.
In fact the immediate cause of the economic crisis that brought many thousands of Sudanese out onto the streets in December last year and continued up to and beyond al-Bashir's downfall lay in the structure of the economy itself.
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Sudan's inherited economy from the colonial zaman consisted primarily of agricultural ekspors, particularly cotton. But after independence in 1956 that went into a long decline in the face of man-made fibres and a lack of success in developing of alternatif crops - with the segmental exception of sugar.
In the 2000s the country experienced something of a boom from oil. But the new wealth wasn't funnelled into the productive economy - particularly agricultural renewal. Rather it went into short-term rent seeking activities such as urban construction and the expansion of commercial activities.
At the same time the country's radical Islamism brought US economic sanctions that limited international capital and the prospek of economic diversity. And under the Islamist military regime - in place since 1989 - new wealth went largely to the security apparatus, the government created ruling party and ethnic and regional friends.
This all added up to a highly corrupt sistem of "crony capitalism". In addition, Sudan's large long running debts hung over the country.
The development of oil in Sudan was delayed for many years by civil war in the south, where most of the oil fields are located. But by the end of the 1990s security had permitted development with the southern rebels being pushed back, though not defeated.
Under growing international pressure the military rulers and the southern rebels finally moved towards peace, and in 2005 an agreement was reached. It aimed at a national government but conceded that if that proved unworkable the south, including most of the oil fields, would have a right to a referendum on independence.
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